Powell will go out having presided over the highest inflation rate among Fed leaders since the 1980s Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has four meetings left as chairman of the U.S. central bank. Inflation so far has averaged 3.1% on his watch, higher than his three most recent predecessors – Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet…
FED SUCCESSION: A LITTLE MORE INFLATION RISK PREMIUM
President Trump says he’s made his decision about a successor to Jerome Powell as Fed chairman. News reports suggest this person is Kevin Hassett, the chair of the National Economic Council, a close and loyal ally of the president. Here is the bond market reaction today — a higher yield, which suggests the market is…
You Need to have Authority
Our conversation about virality and other stuff
DANGEROUS GAMES: What happens in bond markets when President Trump disapproves of inflation news?
This is a useful story by Bloomberg news. President Trump is attacking the credibility of U.S. economic data after last week’s soft jobs report, calling it rigged because of downward revisions to payroll data. Pay attention to the consumer price index release next week. It’s produced by the same Bureau of Labor Statistics agency that…
LOOKING GLASS ECONOMICS: What’s going down with long-term interest rates?
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose 0.85 percentage points during the three months last year when the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by a full percentage point. In the seven+ months since the Fed stopped reducing short-term interest rates, yields on 10-year Treasury notes have dropped about a quarter percentage point. Conventional thinking goes…